A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
